Stop chasing BookTok trends and hot genres. Learn why trend-following fails writers, understand publishing’s real timeline, and discover smarter strategies for choosing marketable book ideas.
The Seductive Logic That Will Waste Years of Your Life
You’re scrolling social media when you notice a pattern: dark academia is everywhere. BookTok can’t stop talking about it. Publishers are acquiring it. Agents are tweeting they want it.
Your brain makes a seemingly logical calculation:
“Dark academia is hot → I should write dark academia → My book will be more likely to sell”
So you abandon your contemporary romance halfway through and pivot to writing brooding students at mysterious universities. You invest a year crafting your dark academia manuscript. You query agents for six months. An agent signs you and spends three months on submission. A publisher acquires your book for publication eighteen months later.
Total timeline: Three years from when you first noticed the trend.
Meanwhile: Dark academia peaked two years ago. The market is now saturated. Readers are exhausted by the glut of similar books. Publishers are actively avoiding “more dark academia.”
Your perfectly crafted trend book arrives at exactly the wrong moment—when the trend is dead.
This isn’t hypothetical. This exact scenario plays out constantly in publishing, leaving writers frustrated, burned out, and holding manuscripts for trends that have already passed.
The Publishing Timeline That Makes Trend-Chasing Futile
Understanding why trend-chasing fails requires understanding publishing’s glacial pace.
The Traditional Publishing Timeline
From idea to bookstore:
- Writing the manuscript: 6-18 months (depending on length, complexity, your schedule)
- Revision before querying: 1-3 months (often multiple rounds)
- Querying agents: 3-12 months (until you find representation or give up)
- Agent revision: 1-3 months (preparing manuscript for submission)
- Submission to publishers: 2-6 months (until acceptance or final rejections)
- Contract negotiation: 1-3 months
- Editorial revision: 3-6 months (often multiple rounds)
- Production process: 12-18 months (copyediting, design, printing, distribution)
Conservative total: 30-36 months (2.5-3 years)
Realistic total for many authors: 48-60 months (4-5 years)
The Trend Lifecycle
Meanwhile, here’s how trends typically evolve:
Phase 1: Emergence (6-12 months)
- Breakout book creates new interest
- Industry begins noticing pattern
- Early adopters start writing similar books
Phase 2: Peak (12-18 months)
- Agents actively seeking the trend
- Publishers acquiring aggressively
- Writers’ conferences buzzing about it
- ← This is when most writers notice and start writing
Phase 3: Saturation (12-24 months)
- Market floods with similar books
- Reader fatigue begins
- Publishers slow acquisitions
- Agents become more selective
Phase 4: Decline (12+ months)
- Readers actively avoid trend
- Publishers reject “more of the same”
- Trend becomes industry punchline
- ← This is when your trend-chasing book finally publishes
The mathematical problem: By the time you notice a trend at its peak and complete the publishing cycle, you’re entering the market during decline or after it’s completely over.
Real-World Examples of Trend-Chasing Disasters
The Vampire Romance Tsunami (Post-Twilight)
2005: Twilight publishes, becomes phenomenon 2006-2008: Agents desperate for vampire romance, authors pivot to writing it 2008-2010: Market floods with vampire books (both good and mediocre) 2010-2012: Severe reader fatigue, publishers stop acquiring vampire romance 2012-2014: Late-to-market vampire books publish to exhausted audiences
Result: Hundreds of solid vampire romance manuscripts became virtually unpublishable, not due to quality issues but because the market became oversaturated.
Exception: Authors who were already writing vampire romance before Twilight (and had different angles) succeeded. Trend-chasers mostly didn’t.
The Dystopian YA Gold Rush (Post-Hunger Games)
2008: The Hunger Games publishes 2010-2012: Massive demand for dystopian YA 2012-2014: Dystopian YA everywhere—including weak imitations 2014-2016: Reader exhaustion, declining sales, publisher pullback 2016-2018: Dystopian YA becomes industry joke
Result: Many quality dystopian manuscripts couldn’t find homes because they arrived during market collapse, regardless of merit.
The Dark Academia Wave (Recent Example)
2019-2020: The Secret History revival, If We Were Villains buzz 2020-2021: Dark academia trending on BookTok, publishers seeking it 2021-2022: Market saturation, dozens of dark academia releases 2023-2024: Reader fatigue setting in, publishers more selective 2025: Late arrivals publishing to declining interest
Pattern: Same cycle, different trend. The writers who started in 2021 when they noticed the buzz are publishing now—right as the trend cools.
Why Trends Feel Like Opportunity But Function Like Traps
The Visibility Illusion
What you see: Agents tweeting “looking for cozy fantasy!” Publishers acquiring fantasy romance. BookTok celebrating romantasy.
What you don’t see:
- The thousands of mediocre trend manuscripts flooding those agents
- The highly selective criteria for what they’re actually acquiring within the trend
- The trend books that sold 2 years ago just now publishing
- The internal publisher discussions about trend fatigue
The trap: Visibility creates illusion of opportunity, but you’re seeing the trend at peak saturation, not at the beginning when opportunity actually existed.
The Competition Problem
When you chase trends, you’re competing in the most crowded space possible.
Scenario: Cozy fantasy is hot.
Your competition:
- Authors who’ve been writing cozy fantasy for years (before it was “hot”)
- Authors who happened to be writing cozy fantasy when it became trendy (lucky timing)
- Hundreds of other trend-chasers who also pivoted to cozy fantasy
- Established authors whose publishers want them to write cozy fantasy
Your disadvantage: You’re writing it because it’s trendy, not because it’s your natural voice. Your passion is lower. Your execution is likely weaker. You’re competing against people for whom this is their genuine genre.
The Authenticity Gap
Readers and publishing professionals detect inauthenticity.
Authentic genre author: “I’ve always loved cozy fantasy. I’ve been developing this world for years. These characters feel like family to me.”
Trend-chaser: “I noticed cozy fantasy is popular, so I’m writing one to improve my chances.”
Who writes the better book? Usually the authentic author, because passion and natural affinity produce better work.
Who do agents prefer? The authentic author, because they’ll likely write more books in the genre they love, not just chase the next trend.
The Exceptions: When Trend Awareness Actually Helps
Trend-chasing fails, but trend awareness can be valuable in specific contexts.
Beneficial Trend Awareness
1. Genre Positioning Understanding broader genre trends helps you position your existing manuscript.
Example: You’ve written a fantasy romance. Learning that “romantasy” is a growing category helps you query appropriately, not change your book.
2. Avoiding Saturated Markets If you’re deciding between two equally appealing ideas, knowing one is oversaturated can be useful tiebreaker.
Example: You love both vampire romance and witch contemporary fantasy. Vampires are oversaturated, witches are underexplored. Choose witches—not because it’s hot, but because it’s less crowded.
3. Understanding Reader Expectations Knowing what’s popular in your genre helps you understand current reader expectations and conventions.
Example: If you write contemporary romance, knowing that readers currently enjoy certain tropes helps you deliver satisfying genre experiences.
4. Early Trend Recognition If you genuinely identify an emerging trend very early (before peak), you might successfully ride the wave.
Caveat: This requires industry connections and manuscript-in-progress already aligned with the trend. By the time trends reach writers’ conference discussions, it’s too late.
What to Write Instead: Smarter Selection Strategies
Strategy 1: Write Your Genuine Passion
The principle: Books written with authentic passion typically outperform books written for market calculation.
Why it works:
- Your enthusiasm shows in the prose
- You’ll persist through difficult revision
- You’ll produce your best work
- Your authentic voice distinguishes you
Application: Don’t ask “What’s trending?” Ask “What story am I desperate to tell?”
Strategy 2: The Evergreen Genre Approach
The principle: Choose broad genres that persist across trends rather than specific trend variations.
Evergreen genres:
- Romance (always sells)
- Mystery/Thriller (consistent demand)
- Fantasy (enduring popularity)
- Science Fiction (stable market)
- Contemporary Fiction (always relevant)
- Historical Fiction (perpetual interest)
Trend variations within these:
- Specific romance subgenres (paranormal, contemporary, historical) fluctuate
- Mystery subgenres (cozy, noir, police procedural) vary in popularity
- Fantasy subgenres (urban, epic, dark) trend up and down
Smart approach: Write in evergreen genre you love, don’t worry about which specific subgenre is currently hot.
Strategy 3: The Authentic Niche Method
The principle: Find the intersection of your genuine interests and underserved reader niches.
The process:
- Identify your authentic interests (cultural background, profession, hobbies, obsessions)
- Research if those interests appear in your genre
- If underrepresented, you’ve found your niche
Examples:
- Mycologist writing fantasy with fungus-based magic systems
- Competitive swimmer writing sports romance
- Classical musician writing mystery series featuring orchestras
- Archaeologist writing historically-accurate adventure fiction
Why it works: Your expertise and passion create authentic detail trend-chasers can’t replicate.
Strategy 4: The “Write What Readers Want” vs. “Write to Trend” Distinction
Write to trend (bad): “Dark academia is popular, so I’ll write dark academia even though I don’t particularly care about it.”
Write what readers want (good): “I love mysteries. I’ll write the mystery I’d want to read, paying attention to what mystery readers currently enjoy.”
The difference: Staying within genre conventions vs. chasing specific trend variations.
Strategy 5: The “Trend-Adjacent” Approach
The principle: Write in spaces related to trends but not identical to them.
When cozy fantasy trends:
- Don’t write cozy fantasy
- Write adjacent: wholesome adventure, low-stakes fantasy, comfort fantasy
When dark romance trends:
- Don’t write dark romance
- Write adjacent: morally gray romance, intense contemporary, psychological romance
Why it works: You capture some trend interest without competing in the most saturated space. You’re positioned for when readers tire of the exact trend and seek variations.
The One Valid Reason to Consider Trends
Scenario where trends matter: You’re a professional author with established readership, publishers want your next book, and you’re genuinely interested in multiple projects.
Decision framework:
- Book A: Your deep passion, niche audience, uncertain commercial prospects
- Book B: Strong interest (not just chasing), aligned with current demand, better commercial timing
Choosing Book B isn’t “selling out”—it’s smart career management when you’re genuinely interested in both projects.
Critical difference: This is trend-awareness influencing project sequencing, not trend-chasing forcing you to write something you’re not passionate about.
How to Use Trend Information Without Being Controlled By It
Healthy Trend Engagement
Do:
- Stay aware of what’s selling in your genre
- Understand reader expectations and genre conventions
- Notice gaps in current market
- Use trends to inform positioning/marketing of existing work
- Let trend awareness be one factor among many
Don’t:
- Abandon current project mid-draft to chase trend
- Write in genre you don’t enjoy because it’s hot
- Let trend anxiety paralyze your writing
- Assume trend status determines quality
- Make trend-chasing your primary strategy
The “Trend Awareness, Not Trend Obedience” Mindset
Question to ask: “Does this trend reflect genuine reader interest in themes/genres I already love?”
If yes: Your existing work may align with current interest—helpful for positioning.
If no: The trend is irrelevant to your work—ignore it completely.
What Agents and Editors Actually Mean
When agents say “I’m looking for [trend],” decode what they actually mean:
What they say: “I’m looking for cozy fantasy!”
What they mean:
- “I’m open to exceptional cozy fantasy that brings something fresh”
- “I’ve noticed market interest and want to capitalize if I find the right project”
- “I’m probably already receiving hundreds of mediocre cozy fantasy submissions”
- “I’m extremely picky about what I’ll actually take on in this category”
Translation: This isn’t an invitation to hastily write cozy fantasy. It’s information that IF you’ve already written exceptional cozy fantasy, they’re receptive.
Frequently Asked Questions About Trends
Q: But isn’t it smart to write what’s selling?
A: “What’s selling now” was written 2-4 years ago. You can’t time-travel. Write what you love and execute brilliantly—that’s what actually sells.
Q: What if my genuine passion happens to be the current trend?
A: Then write it! Authenticity is key. If you genuinely love dark academia and would write it regardless of trend status, go ahead. Just recognize you’re entering a crowded market.
Q: Should I avoid trending genres completely?
A: No. Write what you love, even if it’s trending. Just don’t write it BECAUSE it’s trending. Your motivation matters.
Q: How do I know if I’m trend-chasing or authentically interested?
A: Ask: “Would I write this book if the trend didn’t exist?” If yes, it’s authentic. If no, you’re chasing.
Q: What about self-publishing? Can I trend-chase there?
A: Self-publishing timeline is faster, making trend-response more viable. But authenticity still matters—readers detect cash grabs. And trend fatigue still happens.
Q: Should I never consider marketability?
A: Consider it, don’t be controlled by it. Write books you love that also have potential audiences. That’s different from writing whatever’s hot regardless of your interest.
The Irony of Trendsetting
The ultimate irony: The books that START trends aren’t written to capitalize on trends—they’re written from authentic passion and often feel slightly outside current market preferences.
Twilight wasn’t chasing vampire romance trends (there weren’t any in YA when Meyer started writing).
The Hunger Games wasn’t capitalizing on dystopian YA craze (it created it).
Harry Potter wasn’t jumping on boarding school fantasy bandwagon (no significant recent examples existed).
Pattern: Trendsetters write what they’re passionate about, often slightly ahead of or outside current trends. The market adjusts to them, not vice versa.
Your best chance at being part of the “next big thing”: Write what genuinely excites you, executed brilliantly, even if it doesn’t fit current trends.
Your Anti-Trend-Chasing Action Plan
Step 1: Audit your motivation For your current project: Are you writing this because you love it, or because you think it will sell?
Step 2: Identify your authentic interests What genres do you read for pleasure? What themes obsess you? What stories demand to be told?
Step 3: Choose evergreen over trending If deciding between ideas, prefer the one in stable genre vs. hot-but-likely-to-cool trend.
Step 4: Develop trend immunity When you hear about hot trends, notice them but don’t let them redirect your writing.
Step 5: Focus on execution Pour energy into crafting excellent book in genre you love, not chasing market timing.
Step 6: Trust the long game Your career isn’t built on one perfectly-timed trend book. It’s built on consistently strong work you’re passionate about.
The Permission You Need
You have permission to:
- Write “outdated” genres
- Ignore what’s hot on BookTok
- Choose stories that won’t be trendy
- Write the book you want to read
- Let others chase trends while you write your passion
You have permission to trust that:
- Good books find audiences regardless of trend timing
- Authenticity outperforms calculation
- Slow and steady beats rushed trend-chasing
- Your unique voice matters more than trend alignment
The Real Secret to Publishing Success
Not: Perfectly timing the market with trend-aligned books
Actually: Writing exceptional books you’re passionate about, consistently, over years, building craft and audience gradually
The writers with long careers: They write in genres they love. They improve with each book. They build readerships through authentic work. They occasionally benefit from good timing but don’t depend on it.
The writers who flame out: They chase trend after trend, never developing authentic voice or loyal readership, always arriving late to parties that are ending.
Which writer do you want to be?
Stop checking what’s trending. Stop calculating which genre will sell best. Stop trying to time the market.
Start writing the book only you can write, with passion and excellence.
That’s the trend that never goes out of style.
